Starmer’s Six Milestones: A Bold Vision or Empty Promises?

Keir Starmer’s six ambitious milestones promise change, but can Labour deliver? From housing to healthcare, the PM’s targets face steep challenges in a Britain hungry for results.

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In a much-anticipated speech delivered at Pinewood Studios, Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled his government’s “plan for change”, setting out six key milestones he aims to achieve by the end of this parliament. This ambitious roadmap, coming five months into Labour’s term, seeks to address some of Britain’s most pressing issues, from the NHS crisis to housing shortages. But as the dust settles on Starmer’s grand pronouncement, questions arise: Are these targets achievable, or merely political theatre? And crucially, do they go far enough in tackling the deep-seated problems facing the nation?

The Six Milestones: A Closer Look

Starmer’s plan encompasses six broad areas: living standards, housing, healthcare, policing, education, and energy. Let’s examine each in turn:

1. Raising Living Standards
   The first milestone aims to increase living standards across the UK, with a particular focus on achieving the highest sustained growth in the G7. This target, while commendable, is notably vague. Starmer has refrained from setting specific numerical goals, making it difficult to gauge success or failure.
   The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts a modest 0.5% annual increase in real disposable income over this parliament. To lead the G7 in growth, the UK would need to surpass the current frontrunner, the United States, requiring an annual growth rate exceeding 1.9%. This is a tall order, given that UK growth averaged just 1.6% from 2010 to 2024 under Conservative rule.
   Critics argue that without concrete metrics, this milestone lacks teeth. It’s a convenient political sleight of hand — any improvement, however marginal, could be touted as a win. Yet, in the face of a cost-of-living crisis and stagnant wages, voters may demand more tangible results.
2. Building 1.5 Million Homes
   Housing has long been a thorn in the side of British politics, with successive governments failing to address the chronic shortage. Starmer’s pledge to build 1.5 million new homes is bold, but is it realistic?
   The target equates to roughly 300,000 homes per year — a figure that has consistently eluded previous administrations. In the first six months of 2024–25, there were 15,682 housing starts, with 13,073 (83%) being affordable homes. While this represents an increase from the previous year, it falls far short of the required pace.
   The pledge faces significant hurdles. Planning reforms, nimbyism, and a shortage of skilled labour all pose challenges. Starmer acknowledges this, stating, “Clearly if we don’t turbocharge housebuilding with reform we won’t meet that milestone.” But the devil will be in the details of how Labour plans to overcome these obstacles.
3. NHS Waiting Times
   Perhaps the most ambitious — and contentious — of Starmer’s milestones is the pledge to ensure 92% of NHS patients in England receive treatment within 18 weeks of referral. This target harks back to a standard that hasn’t been met since 2016, and the current situation is dire.
   As of September 2024, the waiting list stood at a staggering 7.57 million cases, with 3.14 million patients waiting over 18 weeks for treatment. The median waiting time has nearly doubled from pre-COVID levels, reaching 14.4 weeks.
   Achieving this milestone would require a herculean effort from an already strained NHS. Critics argue that focusing solely on waiting times could come at the expense of other crucial areas of healthcare. Siva Anandaciva from The King’s Fund warns, “We spoke to people who first introduced these targets and they said that the relentless focus on waiting times meant they frankly had little time for anything else.”
4. More Police on the Beat
   Starmer’s fourth milestone promises to put 13,000 additional police officers, PCSOs, and special constables on the streets. This pledge taps into public concerns about crime and safety, but questions remain about its implementation and effectiveness.
   While increasing police numbers may seem like an easy win, it’s not without complications. Training and deploying new officers takes time, and there’s the perennial issue of retention to consider. Critics argue that simply boosting numbers without addressing underlying social issues is a simplistic approach to crime reduction.
5. School Readiness
   The fifth milestone aims to ensure 75% of five-year-olds in England are ready to learn when they start school. This target acknowledges the critical importance of early years education in shaping a child’s future prospects.
   Currently, only 67.7% of children are judged to have a “good” level of development across areas like language, personal development, maths, and literacy. Closing this gap will require significant investment in early years education and support for families, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
   However, the target has been criticised for being too narrow. It doesn’t address the wider issues of child poverty and inequality that often underpin educational disparities. Without tackling these root causes, achieving and sustaining this milestone may prove challenging.
6. Clean Energy by 2030
   The final milestone pledges to achieve 95% clean power by 2030. This represents a slight retreat from Labour’s previous manifesto commitment to “zero-carbon” electricity by the same date, though Starmer insists the overall mission remains unchanged.
   While ambitious, this target aligns with recommendations from the National Grid Electricity System Operator (NESO), which advises that gas should contribute less than 5% of Britain’s electricity in a typical year. However, the path to achieving this goal is fraught with challenges, including the need for massive infrastructure investment and potential resistance from fossil fuel interests.

The Missing Pieces

While Starmer’s six milestones cover significant ground, there are notable omissions that have not escaped criticism:

• Immigration
  Perhaps the most glaring absence is any mention of immigration targets. This breaks from the tradition of previous governments, which set (and failed to meet) specific numerical goals. Given the contentious nature of the immigration debate and its impact on public services and housing, this omission may be seen as a strategic dodge by some voters.
• Prison Reform
  Despite mentioning “prisons overflowing” in his speech, Starmer did not set any measurable targets for addressing this issue. With the prison system under severe strain, this lack of concrete commitment may disappoint those hoping for comprehensive criminal justice reform.
• Fiscal Responsibility
  While Starmer alluded to a “£22bn black hole in our finances”, he stopped short of setting specific targets for deficit reduction or fiscal management. In an era of economic uncertainty, this lack of detail may raise eyebrows among fiscal conservatives and business leaders.

The Challenges Ahead

Starmer’s milestones, while ambitious, face significant hurdles:

• Economic Headwinds
  Achieving sustained growth in a post-Brexit, post-pandemic economy will be no small feat. Global economic uncertainties, inflationary pressures, and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis all pose threats to Starmer’s vision of rising living standards.
• NHS Crisis
  The healthcare system is under unprecedented strain, with staffing shortages, burnout, and chronic underfunding all contributing to the current crisis. Meeting the 18-week treatment target will require not just resources, but a fundamental rethinking of how healthcare is delivered in the UK.
• Housing Market Complexities
  The housing market is a complex beast, influenced by factors ranging from interest rates to demographic shifts. Building 1.5 million homes is not just a matter of construction, but of managing planning laws, addressing affordability issues, and ensuring sustainable development.
• Educational Inequalities
  The school readiness target, while laudable, must contend with deep-seated inequalities in British society. Factors such as poverty, regional disparities, and access to early years services all play a role in a child’s educational outcomes.
• Energy Transition
  Achieving 95% clean power by 2030 will require a massive overhaul of the UK’s energy infrastructure. This transition will face technical challenges, potential public resistance (e.g., to new wind farms), and the need for significant investment.

A Political Gambit?

Starmer’s decision to set these milestones is not without political calculation. By establishing clear targets, he’s attempting to differentiate his government from its predecessors, presenting Labour as a party of action rather than rhetoric. It’s a strategy that invites scrutiny but also demonstrates confidence — a willingness to be held accountable.

However, this approach is not without risks. As Nick Davies from the Institute for Government notes, targets are “better for raising minimum standards than achieving excellence.” There’s a danger that in focusing on these specific milestones, other crucial areas of governance may be neglected.

By setting such ambitious goals, Starmer risks setting himself up for failure. If these targets are missed — as many government targets often are — it could provide ample ammunition for his political opponents.

The Road Ahead

As Britain contends with the aftermath of Brexit, the lingering effects of the pandemic, and a cost-of-living crisis, Starmer’s milestones offer a roadmap for recovery and renewal. They represent a bold attempt to address some of the most pressing issues facing the nation, from healthcare to housing, education to energy.

Yet, the true test will lie not in the setting of these targets, but in their execution. The coming months and years will reveal whether Starmer’s government can translate these ambitious goals into tangible improvements in people’s lives.

For now, the British public will be watching closely, weighing these promises against their lived experiences. Starmer has thrown down the gauntlet — to his ministers, to the civil service, and to himself. The challenge now is to deliver on these pledges in the face of formidable obstacles.

As the country moves forward, these six milestones will serve as a benchmark against which the Labour government’s performance will be judged. They offer hope for a brighter future, but also set a high bar for success. Only time will tell whether Starmer’s vision for change will translate into the transformative action Britain so desperately needs.

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9

Bob Lynn / 10-Dec-2024